An end in sight?

Keith Goddard

Over the past three years, one of the most frequently asked questions in Zimbabwe (and often asked of me by my 79-year old mother) has been "why are they not taking to the streets and doing something about the situation?" My reply has generally been "who do you mean by they and why are you not on the streets yourself?" But then I am not either!
Many people explain away their inaction by claiming they are not part of the criticalmass (in other words the poor) which is seen alternately as being the hardest hit bythe crisis and having the least to lose. But the crux of the matter is that people aretoo scared to show public dissatisfaction in any direct manner because the stateresponds swiftly by unleashing sledge hammers of violence to crush any protestor resistance. Unlike in Apartheid South Africa where funerals and street marcheswere platforms for, often violent, protest, Zimbabweans are more passive andreserved and reluctant to enter into situations that might turn dangerous. Besides,in the past, peaceful demonstrations have been purposefully overrun by state-employed thugs. The state has then turned round and arrested the march organisersfor "spreading alarm and despondency".
The state is allowed to threaten violence: Mugabe once used state-controlled television to claim he has degrees in it.Yet, around the same time, the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai was arrestedfor saying at a rally that, if Mugabe will not go peacefully, he must be removedviolently. The court dismissed the charges but Tsvangirai is on trial againnow because a dodgy tape made by a Canadian consultancy firm, on whichTsvangirai is heard to state that Mugabe must be eliminated, is being used as evi-dence to suggest that Tsvangirai was plotting the assassination of Mugabe. The tape is clearly an attempt at entrapment but the words "violence" and"eliminate" are extremely unfortunate ones for a major politician to be using,especially in such a politically volatile climate. But the truth remains that the opposition MDC has done much to try torestrain the violence and to bring about peaceful change through a return todemocracy and law and order.

Who pulls the trigger?

Would assassinating Mugabe solve the problem? Certainly he is the problem, andmany quote Hitler and Stalin as prime examples of where a timely bullet wouldhave saved the lives of millions. I refuse to be drawn into these historical parallels of"what if'?" The assassination of Mugabe would probably prompt an immediate mil-itary coup (under the guise of a state of emergency) and the abandoning of even apretence to democracy. Some of us have said that we should never give the state theexcuse to do its worst and, besides, who determines when a person has oversteppedthe mark and deserves to be assassinated? And what becomes of the person who pullsthe trigger?
Mugabe's greatest concern at the moment is to ensure a safe exit plan for himself. Tsvangirai has promised himimmunity should he bow out gracefully. The belief amongst some is that Mugabemust be made to pay for his crimes and there is every reason for a Truth and Rec-onciliation Commission to be set up in order that people hear acknowledgmentof the crimes committed against themselves and their families. For others, likemyself, revenge is not necessary. I realised this after I had talked to a Croatian musi-cian friend who had fled to Austria during the Bosnian war. I suggested that thearrest of Milosevic must give him some sense of welcome relief. He told me thatMilosevic was totally irrelevant to him and that he did not care whether the manlived or died. The fact that he could do no more harm was sufficient.

Passive resistance

In general, Zimbabweans are not confrontational. In fact, until recently, few peopletook any interest in the political process at all and the turn-out at elections was smallbecause there was no effective opposition to vote for. That changed in 1999 with thecollapse of the economy and the advent of the MDC as an effective opposition in the2000 parliamentary elections.
In 2002 Tsvangirai gave Mugabe a runfor his money in the presidential election. But although Zimbabweans turned out indroves to vote, we have been unable to effect any positive change. With reportsof wide-scale rigging and intimidation (especially in the presidential election)many people have lost faith in political processes as a way of making a difference.But Zimbabweans have developed their own highly effective strategy for express-ing their displeasure and applying pressure --the "stay-away", which is basically ageneral strike. The last and most successful one, which took place in mid-April of thisyear, resulted in most businesses in urban areas closing for three consecutive days.In the past, a Harare cafe', the Italian Bakery, has not supported stay-aways andthe rich elite have sat there and sipped coffee whilst deliberating idly aboutwhether or not the stay away was working (not thinking that perhaps they shouldhave avoided patronising a business that broke with it and also stayed at homethemselves). This time the bakery was at least closed on the first day and even mostof the financial institutions respected the call to stay at home. The police in sometowns ordered managers to fetch their workers and tried to force people to go towork, but people, having been pushed onto public transport, got out later andtook the next bus home. Commuter omnibus drivers, faced with having tointroduce stiff fare increases, were told that if they withdrew their services on thethree days they would have their operator licenses revoked. "People are too scaredto show public dissatisfaction in any directmanner because the state responds swiftlyby unleashing sledge hammers of violence."%%[ Page: 12 ]%% a penchant for shopping in expensivestores in Paris and London.
In the late 1970s the US effectivelydealt the final blow to the Rhodesian regime by sending Henry Kissinger toSouth Africa. Ian Smith, under the pretence of going to South Africa to watchrugby, met with Kissinger. Smith was handed the suitcase deal which spelledout that South Africa would pull the plug on Rhodesia if the latter did not agree tomajority rule. Rhodesia, like Zimbabwe, could not survive economically withoutits biggest trading partner, South Africa, and so was forced to give in. ThaboMbeki knows he can exact the same power today, but he lacks the strength tomake firm decisions and has couched this in terms of "quiet diplomacy". His inde-cisiveness has led to plain economics making the decisions for him.

Food is a weapon

Zimbabwe runs on oil and the fuel bill the country has run up with the South Africanoil company, SASOL, has reached such proportions that fuel is now being sold tous on a cash-only basis. But Zimbabwe has no foreign exchange to pay for the importsbecause the country's agricultural industry was destroyed as a result of the poorly-managed land seizures. The national airline, Air Zimbabwe, is virtually groundedand long lines of empty cars are parked abandoned outside fuel stations. Industryis further effected because we cannot pay our electricity bill to South Africa.
    The situation with food has been the most critical. The famine results, to someextent, from the recent serious drought, but more generally from the chaotic landredistribution programme. Most of the irrigation equipment, which once stavedoff the effects of drought, has either been removed or destroyed. A country that waswell able to feed itself previously and generally exported to other parts of theregion is expected to produce only 25% of its needs this year.
    The World Food Programme helped with the importation of maize last yearbut struggled with a government that tried to politicise its distribution. Inopposition strongholds, only people with ZANU-PF party cards could expect to beawarded maize. Much of the food distribution has been supervised by what arepopularly known as the "Green Bombers" --ZANU-PF youth, trained at militiacamps around the country. Their official role in society is not clear other than act-ing as general bully boys. Reports from the marginalised Tonga minority in theremote Zambezi Valley, one of the areas hardest hit by drought, is that the Tongaare constantly plagued by the Green Bombers. But when asked for party cardsat food drop offs, the Tonga simply walk away from queues refusing to bow topressure to associate with a party that they do not trust and that forces them toobey. The old grandmothers have been returning to their traditional art of boil-ing poisonous tubors in order to keep their families alive.
    And then there is AIDS. Let us believe that the end is in sight.

Keith Goddard is the Director for Programming, Gays and Lesbians of Zimbabwe (GALZ).
GALZ, P Bag A6131, Avondale, Harare, Zimbabwe (tel: +263 4 741 736; fax: 740 614; email: galz@mweb.co.zw).